[Dem0000]

This is interesting... especially that they are predicting it to be at it's peak "in about 4 years"... hmmm maybe December 21, 2012??

Fox News Link

Scientists have found two large leaks in Earth's magnetosphere, the region around our planet that shields us from severe solar storms.

The leaks are defying many of scientists' previous ideas on how the interaction between Earth's magnetosphere and solar wind occurs: The leaks are in an unexpected location, let in solar particles in faster than expected and the whole interaction works in a manner that is completely the opposite of what scientists had thought.

The findings have implications for how solar storms affect the our planet. Serious storms, which involved charged particles spewing from the sun, can disable satellites and even disrupt power grids on Earth.

The new observations "overturn the way that we understand how the sun's magnetic field interacts with the Earth's magnetic field," said David Sibeck of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., during a press conference today at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

The bottom line: When the next peak of solar activity comes, in about 4 years, electrical systems on Earth and satellites in space may be more vulnerable.

How it works

Earth's magnetic field carves out a cavity in the sun's onrushing field. The Earth's magnetosphere is thus "buffeted like a wind sock in gale force winds, fluttering back and forth in the" solar wind, Sibeck explained.

Both the sun's magnetic field and the Earth's magnetic field can be oriented northward or southward (Earth's magnetic field is often described as a giant bar magnet in space).

The sun's magnetic field shifts its orientation frequently, sometimes becoming aligned with the Earth, sometime becoming anti-aligned.

Scientists had thought that more solar particles entered Earth's magnetosphere when the sun's field was oriented southward (anti-aligned to the Earth's), but the opposite turned out to be the case, the new research shows.

The work was sponsored by NASA and the National Science Foundation and based on observations by NASA's THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) satellite.

How many and where

Essentially, the Earth's magnetic shield is at its strongest when scientists had thought it would be at its weakest.

When the fields aren't aligned, "the shield is up and very few particles come in," said physicist Jimmy Raeder of the University of New Hampshire in Durham.

Conversely, when the fields are aligned, it creates "a huge breach, and there's lots and lots of particles coming in," Raeder added, at the news conference.

As it orbited Earth, THEMIS's five spacecraft were able to estimate the thickness of the band of solar particles coming when the fields were aligned — it turned out to be about 20 times the number that got in when the fields were anti-aligned.

THEMIS was able to make these measurements as it moved through the band, with two spacecraft on different borders of the band; the band turned out to be one Earth radius thick, or about 4,000 miles (6,437 kilometers).

Measurements of the thickness taken later showed that the band was also rapidly growing.

"So this really changes our understanding of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling," said physicist Marit Oieroset of the University of California, Berkeley, also at the press conference.

And while the interaction of anti-aligned particles occurs at Earth's equator, those of aligned particles occur at higher latitudes both north and south of the equator.

The interaction is "appending blobs of plasma onto the Earth's magnetic field," which is an easy way to get the solar particles in, said Sibeck, a THEMIS project scientist.

Next solar cycle

This finding not only has implications for scientists' understanding of the interaction between the sun and Earth's magnetosphere, but for predicting the effects to Earth during the next peak in the solar cycle.

The Sun operates on an 11-year cycle, alternating between active and quiet periods. We are currently in a quiet period, with few sunspots on the sun's surface and fewer solar flares, though the next cycle of activity has begun.

It is expected to peak around 2012, bringing lots of sunspots, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs can interact with the Earth's magnetosphere, causing problems for satellites, communications, and power grids.

This upcoming active period now looks like it will be more intense than the previous one, which peaked around 2006, some scientists think. The reason is the changes in the sun's alignment.

During the last peak, solar fields hitting the Earth were first anti-aligned then aligned. Anti-aligned fields can energize particles, but in this case, the energy came before the particles themselves, which doesn't create much of a fuss in terms of geomagnetic storms and disruptions.

But the next cycle will see aligned, then anti-aligned fields, in theory amplifying the effects of the storms as they hit.

Raeder likens the difference to igniting a gas stove one of two ways: In the first way, the gas is turned on and the stove is lit and you get a flame.

In the other way, you let the gas run for awhile, so that when you add the gas you get a much bigger boom.

"It should be that we're in for a tough time in the next 11 years," Sibeck said.

Copyright © 2008 Imaginova Corp. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

[CaniswalensisGStudy]

WOW! What an interesting article! Thanks for posting this, Dem!

[BlueRose3]

I just woke up and read this and I’m a little confused. Here they said that the sun is on a 11 year cycle. Ok, no problem with that because that is what I’ve been hearing for the past couple of years, but what has me confused is that they said it will peak in 2012. The problem is, didn’t it already peak a couple of years ago? When I get a chance I’ll be checking to see if there are any charts out there, giving out the dates of the solar cycle because I’m sure that it had already peaked only a couple of years ago and 2012 is way too early for it to peak again.

This post has been edited by BlueRose3: 20 December 2008 - 06:59 AM

[Dem0000]

I just woke up and read this and I’m a little confused. Here they said that the sun is on a 11 year cycle. Ok, no problem with that because that is what I’ve been hearing for the past couple of years, but what has me confused is that they said it will peak in 2012. The problem is, didn’t it already peak a couple of years ago? When I get a chance I’ll be checking to see if there are any charts out there, giving out the dates of the solar cycle because I’m sure that it had already peaked only a couple of years ago and 2012 is way too early for it to peak again.

I think the confusion is that each cycle's peak ACTIVITY is in the middle or around 5.5 years into it. The last peak activity was in 2006 so the next peak activity will be around 2012.

"The Sun operates on an 11-year cycle, alternating between active and quiet periods. We are currently in a quiet period, with few sunspots on the sun's surface and fewer solar flares, though the next cycle of activity has begun."

[BlueRose3]

I’m still confused. LOL..
“11” year cycle.. A cycle is one point that works it's way all around back to that starting point. So the high peak activity to get back to where it was for the sun is 11 years.. it takes 11 years from high peak to work it's way around back to high peak

Like take a watch; 12:00 is the strongest peek of activity. As the hand moves towards the 6:00 the activity slows down until it hit 6:00 where it has the least activity. Then as it works it’s way back to 12:00 the activity gets stronger until it hit the 12:00 again where it has the most activity again.

High Peak Activity was - 2006 (12:00)
+ 5.5 years = mid 2012 - which should be the lowest peak of activity (6:00)
+ 5.5 years = 2017 - where it should be back to the highest peak of activity again. (back to 12:00)

5.5 + 5.5 = 11 ( 11 years = 1 cycle )

Like a 11 hr clock.. From 11:00 to 5:30 it slows down and after 5:30 going back up to 11:00 it gets stronger…

11:00 = highest peak activity
5:30 = lowest point activity

For my way of thinking then the sun does not have an 11 year cycle but only a 5.5 year cycle. If the sun is at it’s highest peak again in 2012 when it had already hit it’s highest peak in 2006.. Than that is only 5.5 years cycle…
For my way of thinking 2012 should be the lowest peak of activity..


So what is it? Does the sun have a 5.5 year cycle or does it have an 11 year cycle?

Now do you see why I am confused? That is if you can understand what I am talking about. LOL…

This post has been edited by BlueRose3: 20 December 2008 - 06:35 PM

[Dem0000]

You got me confused now BlueRose lol. I don't really know but I think a clue here may be in a quote from the article: "The Sun operates on an 11-year cycle, alternating between active and quiet periods. We are currently in a quiet period, with few sunspots on the sun's surface and fewer solar flares, though the next cycle of activity has begun."

Maybe there are always 2 - 11 year cycles ongoing each at each other's opposite. That would make peak activity every 5.5 years. The way I thought of it was - take a circle (both the earth and the sun are round), the cycle is the diameter with peaks at both ends of the line (peak activity and peak non-activity) and the circumference from peak activity to peak non-activity would be 11 years. Now add another diameter (cycle) which is perpendicular to the first one (like a cross in the circle) with 11 years. What that would mean is that it would take 22 years to get all the way around the circle (2 cycles) but every 5.5 years you would have a peak, alternating between peak activity and peak non-activity.

I don't really know but NASA should.

[Snowlord]

According to the chart on this page we will be pretty close to a solar maximum by 2012. It looks like 2006 was the beginning of a low sunspot period, and we are approaching the start of an increase of activity.

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml



.

[BlueRose3]

Hmmm.. The link is not working for me at the moment. I'll try it again later.

[actorgurl]

Well, if we were to go exactly by the chart that you posted, then the actual peak of the activity would occur in 2013, not 2012. I'm not trying to shoot down the theory or anything because I fully believe something massive is going to happen. Actually this theory makes a lot of sense. But matching up the year to the peak of this sun cycle, it would be closer to happening in 2013 instead of 2012.

[Sly-Spectre]

Well, if we were to go exactly by the chart that you posted, then the actual peak of the activity would occur in 2013, not 2012. I'm not trying to shoot down the theory or anything because I fully believe something massive is going to happen. Actually this theory makes a lot of sense. But matching up the year to the peak of this sun cycle, it would be closer to happening in 2013 instead of 2012.

How much you wanna bet the doomsday theorists are gonna use it as scientific eveidence that aztecs were right anyways?

[actorgurl]

How much you wanna bet the doomsday theorists are gonna use it as scientific eveidence that aztecs were right anyways?

Lol, well honestly it wouldn't surprise. They would do almost anything to prove they are right and everone else is wrong.

[PSI-Jim]

Interesting stuff. There are so many Dec 12 2012 theories out there though.

Nice copyright footer too.... Not for redistribution. hahaha.

Jim

[trin]

I just woke up and read this and I’m a little confused. Here they said that the sun is on a 11 year cycle. Ok, no problem with that because that is what I’ve been hearing for the past couple of years, but what has me confused is that they said it will peak in 2012. The problem is, didn’t it already peak a couple of years ago? When I get a chance I’ll be checking to see if there are any charts out there, giving out the dates of the solar cycle because I’m sure that it had already peaked only a couple of years ago and 2012 is way too early for it to peak again.

If I remember right, a cycle can mean it peaks to a certain point on a regular basis in a regular rhythm. It does not mean the "high spot" is the only peak, so there can be mini-peaks at expected points throughout the cycle.The last time there was a big peak, it interrupted some tv/radio transmissions for a few hours. It affected cell phone service. (fewer people were as reliant on cell phones.)The "big peak" a while back (more than a few years) wasn't a catastrophe. So it's unlikely that this one will be a really big problem either. Most people hardly notice these things. Now if the solar storms hit their peak at the same time as the magnetic field coverage is at it's lowest, it will be a bother...for awhile. Maybe a day or two. Probably NOT a disaster.11 years really isn't such a long period of time.There also seems that there may be a previously unnoted but natural connection between the earth's magnetic field and the solar flares. Even more of a likelihood that this occurs on a regular basis.

[citrinecastle]

Look up the Mayan calendar. From what I understand of it, in 2012 we'll be at the bottom of our solar system...furthest from the sun with all other sorts of planetary things going on which makes us more likely to experience sun bursts, astroids and so on. I think it fits into this. I will tell you now that the Mayan calendar is actually 3 calendars in one. Spent awhile looking into it, have an ok grasp on it.....but it's still confusing as....well. Just...look into it yourselves and you'll see the correlation between it and this particular topic. If I try to explain it, I'll sound like a moron.

[bubba]

I knew I should not have read this thread......im scared now lol, dunno why I do it to my self!